Elections in North 2009

brother · Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2009 12:52 am Post subject: Elections in North 2009

The elections in the North could have worrying consequences;

"TURKISH CYPRIOTS go to the polls tomorrow in an election that could herald a return to the kind of right-wing politics not seen since before the community’s ‘yes’ vote in the Annan plan referendum in 2004.

The opposition National Unity Party (UBP), led by Dervis Eroglu, which advocates a two-state solution, is leading opinion polls, with the ruling Republican Turkish Party (CTP) of Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat trailing by a wide margin.

The latest opinion poll on how Sunday’s vote may go was published on April 4, where it was predicted that the UBP would walk away with 44 per cent of the vote, a percentage that would give the party single-handed control over ‘parliament’. The CTP would get only 27 per cent, the poll predicted, taking its share of the chamber down to just 16 seats.

But even if a UBP win doesn’t scupper the already difficult reunification talks between Talat and President Demetris Christofias, the outcome may hinder the ongoing negotiations, by crimping his room to manoeuvre.

"It all depends on how big a win the UBP will have ... But it will mean Talat has less of a free hand in negotiations essentially," a Western diplomat told Reuters.

“A win for the UBP would take us back ten years. They are not in support of a settlement,” Turkish Cypriot businessman Fikri Toros told the Cyprus Mail.

The CTP has struggled, and has so far failed, to fulfill its 2004 promise of a solution to the Cyprus problem along with EU membership, while the UBP wants to maintain the north’s umbilical relations with Turkey."

http://www.cyprus-mail.com/news/main.php?id=45239&archive=1

While i would like to dismiss this as rubbish..... i cannot and have to say that this is very much the reality, while Talat and Ankara support the process taken by the two leaders of Cyprus i can say that from my first hand experience that many Turkish Cypriot if they go to the polls to vote on a plan put forward that result from the negotiations i actually believe that with UBP in government this will almost surely end in a 'no' vote, these are very worrying time indeed Sad

Your thoughts please

mod note: link corrected

repulsewarrior · Posted: Sun Apr 19, 2009 9:22 pm Post subject:

so long as there is a desire by Turkey to continue on its path toward modernisation (read: westernisation) there will be forces that demonstrate a tolerance for the principals of hegemony which in the end must be considered.

what is necessary in cyprus is a solution which can be emulated and which demonstrates the cypriot commitment to the Princioals which enrich the Human condition.

...i find it worrying too.

vaughanwilliams · Posted: Tue Apr 21, 2009 2:25 pm Post subject:

The big win by UBP could have been and was predictable. Turkish Cypriot's have no reason to believe that Greek Cypriot's want anything but "their island" back and that the EU, whilst promising much, delivers little.
Turkey is the only country that has supported Turkish Cypriot's in practice and not just paid lip service to them, so it is natural that Turkish Cypriot's see them as playing a big part in their future.
Kick a dog long enough and he will eventually bite you.

Alexios · Mukhtar/is Joined: 20 Oct 2005 Posts: 981

Does anybody have a reliable analysis of how T/Cs and settlers voted? The media in the south stressed that out of the 160.000 or so voters, nearly 100.000 were settlers.

city · Posted: Wed Apr 22, 2009 4:36 pm Post subject:

Erdogan says vote mustn't weaken Talat's hand

stavrizatz · Posted: Sat Apr 25, 2009 5:46 am Post subject:

So at the end of the day the Annan plan was a unique opportunity. Not that it is impossible to find a settlement under the current circumstances but negotiations go back to the time of Denctash.

I wonder what the next decade politics will be like. To dance tango you need two, will we have both sides interested in settlement?

repulsewarrior · Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2009 2:50 am Post subject:

stav...

...we need a perfect solution. (an need I remind you that both TPap and Denktash pleaded with Talat to at least delay the Referendum)...

much of what is, what causes this impasse are the actions of the interlocutors resisting change. we need to break the vicious circle which drives this game between them with ideas that embrace a new condition if there is to be an end to the subjugation. as humans we can remain a people with a cause for the dignity of having a long past. the choices we make in this context (as this island's dwellers, as the most socialised people in the world) will add to the possibilities for many in resolving their own scores.

within the work of Denktash and Makarios, as contemporaries, there is the grain which we live denied. that is a society which is Bicommunal, so that we have one Identity as Individuals, and yet as Persons we are many.

...and since 1974, BiZonal; geographically not meaning Cyprus torn in two, but divided; adding to this Social Principal, land. in this context imagine: a frontier much like it is today, without troops but with the entire island spotted with enclaves. Two (or several) National Assemblies could represent the electors of these Jurisdictions, (Grecophone, Turcophone, Maronite, etc.) a Majority (with its diversities) which sustains its own as People.

...such an arrangement allows us as constituents to demonstrate our Grace, as Communities, by allowing us to recognise the special needs of minorities amongst us. with this, within a State which exists to defend our Individual Rights as equals we can stand united in defending the Sovereignty for our self determination.

stavrizatz · Posted: Wed Apr 29, 2009 2:55 pm Post subject:

RW, Grear, but my fear is that the majority of Cypriots think in terms of what they will gain from a solution. It seems to me that people in the North, especially settlers who constitute the majority of the voters, gain from partition so why solve the Cyprus problem which for them is allready solved.

Your approach to the cyprop is a holistic one that embraces the values of peace culture; love, respect, tolerance, understanding, where all people are equal in a diverse society. How can the society swift?

moonskin · Mukhtar/is Joined: 29 Aug 2005 Posts: 529

Okay, let us try to get some things straight: This election was not about the win of the UBP, but mainly about the loss of CTP. This election was neither about the change of opinion of the Turkish Cypriots on the Cyprus Problem, since we do not have any other future alternatives, apart from the one in a unified Cyprus. Actually, with the recent Orams-disaster (for our part), this has become the undeniable situation that, we have absolutely no other option than making peace on this island, which will contain certain, previously "unthinkable," concessions on our part.

While UBP has managed a clear win over CTP, this situation must be analyzed very, very carefully. Did the Cyprus problem play a major role in this election campaign? Absolutely not. So, what did UBP promised as a part of its campaign, that made the difference? Absolutely, nothing! So, do I mean that UBP promised the usual pre-2003 style rule of the north Cyprus? Yes, this is what they promised! So how come they won? Because you know, it was the Turkish Cypriots who filled up the narrow streets of Nicosia and shouted out to the world that they are sick of Denktas + UBP combination. So, how is it that they won, so much ahead of CTP? Well, actually they did not. What happened was that CTP lost big time. Given the amount of shallowness in the Turkish Cypriot political life, this means that no matter how much you suck, you can just wait by doing nothing and then you will eventually win with the standard argument of "1. Turkey pays us and we pay you. 2. Turkey is great, Greeks are evil. 3. There is no such thing as Greek Cypriot property in north Cyprus."

I know it sucks. I hate it and I know that every Turkish Cypriot with a right mind hates this as much as I do. But this is the real picture of north Cyprus.

Okay, let us now have a small walk in the future. The big questions hanging out there are as follows:

1. So now that we have a UBP-only government, is this going to have any effect on the negotiations?

2. Does Eroğlu stand a chance against Talat (or the vice versa) in the upcoming presidential election, which will be held on April 2010? (Of course, this question only makes sense under the assumption that negotiations are not over by April.)

3. Assuming that a referendum is held before April, what are the chances of UBP affecting the result towards a "Hayır" by the Turkish Cypriot side?

The answer to all of these questions lies under the observation that, the win by the UBP is a (almost) completely useless development on its own: Recently, there is not a single month in the north Cyprus that goes by without the gossip of the lack of money and thus, civil servants not getting paid at the beginning/end of the month. Looking at the amount of deficit in the Turkish Cypriot budget, it is beyond any doubt that the truth value of this gossip is between the lips of the prime minister of Turkey, currently Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Therefore, if we consider the gigantic size of the civil servants in north Cyprus, Eroğlu can't even guarantee to pay the salaries of its employees in the following months. Therefore, it is completely ridiculous to talk in a way that suggests Eroğlu has a free will in making any kind of decisions at this level, especially if these decisions have the character of affecting the future of a 70-million Turkey!

If Erdoğan desires so, we could easily have an early election before the end of this year, in which %4 of the votes will be an optimistic prediction for UBP, leave aside %40+.

So, the answer to all of the questions above is a big fat NO!

Don't forget that, UBP is a party ruled by mere shallow opportunism and absolutely nothing else! There is no ideology or any other fundamental value that holds this party together. Neither their success nor their failure has any deep meaning in any analysis targeting north Cyprus.

city · Posted: Wed May 13, 2009 2:31 pm Post subject:

Thank you for your interesting summary moonskin!

regarding your second question: Didn't Talat say he wasn't gonna run for president again if the CyProb is not solved by the end of 2009??

moonskin · Mukhtar/is Joined: 29 Aug 2005 Posts: 529

city · Posted: Thu May 14, 2009 2:56 pm Post subject:

murataga · Villager Joined: 06 Aug 2007 Posts: 18

murataga · Villager Joined: 06 Aug 2007 Posts: 18

repulsewarrior · Posted: Mon May 25, 2009 3:09 am Post subject:

muri, can you enlighten us? it must be easy for you to provide census information for us that is impartial.

what are we to assume; turkish settlers are a boon to the Turkish State, illegal, and done on the massive scale, like the Army which occupies this land, and the toponomy which has been completely changed, for a policy to which all Cypriots are subject to, and from which our identity Communally and as Communities faces a peril.

as a Grecophone surrounded by Turcophones, my hope is that the Goodwill we can express in our condition, as an Independent State and this island's dwellers, will have in its Principal something which can be emulated. With the recognition of a Politic on which Turkey agrees, for Cyprus, Armenians and Palestinians, for example can prosper...

...Bicommunally, and Bizonally perhaps; a good solution for them as well...