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Bananiot
Warnings : 1
Deputy
Joined: 13 Aug 2005
Posts: 1244
Location: Nicosia
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It appears that the Central Committee of AKEL which met this afternnon, has decided to put to the members of AKEL the question:
Christofias or Tassos for President?
The Party, according to Andros Kyprianou, will listen carefully to the members but it will not be bound to any decision of the members. Their role is seen as advisory.
I am willing to bet my last cent AKEL will opt for Papadopoulos. I am willing to stake my reputation on this one! If I am wrong I will declare that I am the most irrelevant person of the forum. |
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Get Real!
Warnings : 3
Senior Villager
Joined: 28 Dec 2006
Posts: 325
Location: Nicosia
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| Bananiot wrote: |
It appears that the Central Committee of AKEL which met this afternnon, has decided to put to the members of AKEL the question:
Christofias or Tassos for President?
The Party, according to Andros Kyprianou, will listen carefully to the members but it will not be bound to any decision of the members. Their role is seen as advisory.
I am willing to bet my last cent AKEL will opt for Papadopoulos. I am willing to stake my reputation on this one! If I am wrong I will declare that I am the most irrelevant person of the forum. |
I've heard of calculated risks but this is bloody ridiculous Bananiot! If you want to make a prediction you've got to make it way before it ceases to be one!  |
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Bananiot
Warnings : 1
Deputy
Joined: 13 Aug 2005
Posts: 1244
Location: Nicosia
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What calculated risk are you talking about GR? I think Kifeas will tell you off again on this one. Even cypezokyli, one of the more level headed forumers, thinks that Christofias will be a candidate eventually.
Obviously, you agree with me, so I am glad we are together on this one. |
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Mete
Warnings : 3
Deputy
Joined: 16 Aug 2005
Posts: 1150
Location: Boston
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| Bananiot wrote: |
I am willing to bet my last cent AKEL will opt for Papadopoulos. I am willing to stake my reputation on this one! If I am wrong I will declare that I am the most irrelevant person of the forum.
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Hey Bananiot, I would still consider you very relevant whether you predict right or wrong. I don't know much about Greek Cypriot politics (which is unfortunate!) so I can't make any predictions but if you turn out to be right, I'll be even more certain that you know what you're talking about when it comes to Greek Cypriot politics. |
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Alexios
Mukhtar/is
Joined: 20 Oct 2005
Posts: 981
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You are taking a risk Bananiot because 2 months or so until AKEL decide is a long time in politics some time,but i am willing to take the same.
In simple words the story will go something like this:
1.The letter to party members has been sent, which according to AKEL, summarizes the pros and cons of both Papadopoullos and Christofias candidatures.Apparently it takes no sides.The logical thing is that most AKEL members will choose Christofias so to speak.(though not a huge majority in my opinion) The basic intention really is to appease the base by making it appear that they really do have a say in the great AKEL tradition...
2.The Central Committee will "seriously consider" the opinion of the members.Meantime the Katsourides clique within AKEL, with the support of Haravgi will discreetly support and advocate Papadopoullos candidature "for the long term benefit" of the party...
3.A whole karagioz act will be staged when the Central Committee sit to decide, with everybody pretending how historic this decision has to be and the great responsibility undertaken etc etc....
4.The act will be closed with the historic decision to support TP (we may even see a tear or two from Christofias) for the benefit of the Cypriot people (both G/Cs and T/Cs dont forget) because the tripirtite coalition has to survive at all costs. Meantime, Christofias will have already negotiated the role of AKEL in the coalition...
5. TP, Christofias, Karoyian and Omirou will all appear together at the presidential palace or somewhere appropriate so that they can be seen together all sweet and tender to each other and make statements of their final patriotic stance....the lights will go off and everybody will go happy whilst the Turkish flag will be flashing mockingly opposite them.... |
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Alexios
Mukhtar/is
Joined: 20 Oct 2005
Posts: 981
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PS: Christofias may even negotiate and try to secure the other karagiozler commitment that they will support him for President in the 2013 elections...
You see he knows perfectly well that he cannot be elected this time even if he reaches the second round....... |
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Bananiot
Warnings : 1
Deputy
Joined: 13 Aug 2005
Posts: 1244
Location: Nicosia
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| Alexios, you have hit the nail on the head. It is nothing more than a performance for karagioz. I refuse to be part of the audience. |
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DM
Villager
Joined: 21 May 2007
Posts: 26
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| Alexios wrote: |
PS: Christofias may even negotiate and try to secure the other karagiozler commitment that they will support him for President in the 2013 elections...
You see he knows perfectly well that he cannot be elected this time even if he reaches the second round....... |
Hi everyone! Let me first say that I am a Greek Cypriot and have been visiting the forum quite regularly even though I have never posted here in the past.
Now back to the original issue of the thread.
My own opinion is that Akel will finaly select Christofias as the party's canditate. I base this on the following facts:
a. Members: the majority of the members of Akel seem to be disatisfied by the way that TP handled both the Cyprus Problem following the rejection of the Annan plan and Socioeconomic issues.
Cyprus Problem: On the Cyprus Problem side, everyone expected that Akel would be in a position to have more say on how the 'No' vote was handled and Akelists were expecting TP to negotiate the plan in order to reach a new version, albeit with a different name, that would tackle a limited number of issue that lead to the 'No' vote. It seems that TP chose to follow a different path which aims to the complete "burying" of the plan, something that we all know that will never be accepted by the international community.
Economy: On the socioeconomic front TP also followed his own agenda and in numerous times ignored the 'manifesto' agreed by the 3 parties on serious issues like pensions, taxation, benefits etc. These are issues that are considered crucial for the base and members of Akel and cannot be ignored. TP insistance of joining the euro on 1st January 2008 and not in 2009, the disguised pushing for applying for the Organisation of Peace and Cooperation which is considered the first step of joining Nato and a number of other policies that Akel objects are also things that will not go down well with Akel members.
Lessons from the past: Akel also in the past cooperated with DHKO to elect Spyros Kyprianou with all the known results. SK once he secured the a second term in office with Akel's vote he simply stabbed Akel in the back. Akel members and leadership seem to be very concerned with this thing happening again and the latest events regarding EDEK's rushed decision to back TP and the talk about EUROKO joining TP does not help. Its a matter of trust and it seems that the glass is long cracked. TP and DHKO have all themeselves to blame for this as the latest event have shown beyond doubt that TP and DHKO once elected for a second term have nothing to lose and will not hesitate to force Akel out.
Strategy: Akel's General Assembly decision on the referendum decided a soft 'No' vote since there were a numbers of thing on the Annan plan that needed to be changes in order for the party to say 'Yes'. Such issues were that of guarantee, economy and right of movement. That policy of a soft 'No' was probably the right one as it gave time to negotiate a limited number of issues from the high moral ground as the international community would sense that a 'Yes' vote was close once a small number of concession were made towards the side that voted 'No'. It seems that TP has a different view on the issue and thus all the talk about the Annan Plan being on the mortuary table.
Pride: The recent events of TP with the help of DHKO and EDEK are seen by most Akel members as an attempt to corner the party and leaving it no other option but to sign a blank cheque to TP. This creates lot of resentment among party members but also among the majority (it seems) of the leadership of the party as a posible decision to back TP for another term will look in the eyes of the electorate as a capitulation to the demands of the smaller parties of the coalition.
TP past and strategy: The majority of Akel members backed TP the first time under the leadership's reassuance that TP has changed. I do not think that this will stand as an argument anymore with the party's members. The members know very well that the gap between TP policies on the Cyprus Problem and Akel's base views instead of closing is moving towards the oposite direction. TP seems to be following a policy that seeks to solve the problem in the span of maybe 20 years. This cannot be accepted by Akels members who see the trend of nationalism once again dictating the political dialogue in both communities.
Unity of the party: It seems that only one option can guarantee the unity of the party and this is the decision to have Christofias as a canditate. Any other decision will inevitably lead to the exit of a significant number of members with the party's youth and unions being the sections that will sustain the biggest losses in memberships.
Probabilities of Success: Maybe this is the first time that Akel has a realistic probability of electing a president on its own, this is provided that it Christofias succeeds to pass to the 2nd round of the presidential elections. It is certain that the Cyprus Problem will dominate the election campaign. In such an event Christofias will have to face either Kasoulides or TP in the second round. DYSI and TP views on the Cyprus problem are at the time seen as representing the two extremes. It is obvious that following a first round that the bickering and name calling between the two "extremes" will create a very polarised atmosphere regarding the Cyprus Problem and the Annan Plan it will be very hard for the loser to back the other extreme in the second round of the election. Akel probably sees this as an opportunity that never had in the past and with the right election campaign may well capitalise on this. The opinions that have been expressed in this thread before that more or less dismiss any probability of success for Chistofias are in my opinion very swallow in the sense that they are based on the way that politics worked prior to the 2004 referendum. In any political analysis one has to take into account how the political scene has changed after the referendum and how this has altered voters behaviour. This is the first time after the referendum that either DHSY or EDEK&DHKO voters may face the reality of having to vote for somebody that is not their party's candiitate and at the same time Akel seems to hold the middle ground with regard to the Cyprus Problem. Lets see how they behave. Ofcourse all this is subject to the condition that Cristofias manages to pass in the second round. |
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cypezokyli
Ministerial
Joined: 20 Dec 2005
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hi DM and  |
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pg
Deputy
Joined: 17 Jan 2006
Posts: 1485
Location: Cyprus
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DM, thanks for an interesting post.
I also think that what will play the biggest role in the decision is the tactical part - basically, will Christofias be able to pass into the second round or not?
If he does I think he will win - and I suspect AKEL thinks the same.
By the way, isn't this sweet:
| Quote: |
| “My wish is to have the cooperation of all three parties and certainly that of AKEL. I think you know how much I respect AKEL, its leadership and members and as such I think the party views are particularly important,” |
http://www.financialmirror.com/more_news.php?id=7034&type=st&nt=Politics |
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Mete
Warnings : 3
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Joined: 16 Aug 2005
Posts: 1150
Location: Boston
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| What's the timeline for this "karagoz" performance? In other words, when is AKEL supposed to make a decision? |
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Bananiot
Warnings : 1
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Joined: 13 Aug 2005
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Location: Nicosia
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Very well put, mete, my friend. The decision has already been taken, in my opinion, and despite DM's brilliant effort (based on the kind of rationality one expects to see in a proper democracy and not in a banana republic) the course for AKEL has been charter and it will lead to a full hearted support of Papadopoulos. If you believe Christofias, the decision will be taken towards the end of July.
The way I see things is that the so called base of AKEL (that is a couple of thousand people) will vote secretly on the question put to them (Christofias or Papadopoulos). The vast majority of the base are die-hard members, many of whom are related by blood or otherwise to the nomenclature of AKEL. The Central Committee itself is made up of 105 members of which about 95 are on the pay roll of AKEL. These people, including those of the base, can easily be manipulated. For example they can be told on the side that the time is not right for a communist to become the President and that for the sake of unity of the party (or better and more dramatic, for the sake of survival of the party) patience is needed on this occasion. Obviously they cannot vote for Papadopoulos, given the choice put to them. If they did it would be a major embarrassment for AKEL. I expect a close call, about 55% to 45% in favour of Christofias. Then the party will say that it sacrifices its justifiable right and for the sake of unity and the good of Cyprus it waives its right to elect the new President and supports Papadopoulos for another 5 years.
Basically the same tactics were used in 2003 when the leadership of AKEL imposed Papadopoulos onto the members of AKEL. Until then Papadopoulos was a much hated person in the party. He was involved in the murders of leftists in the late 50's and as a Minister in the early Makarios government recieved funds directly from CIA to wage his anti AKEL propaganda and struggle. Yet, after the various interventions of the leadership, the members of AKEL were happy to accept him as the Presidential candidate of AKEL and later on voted for him. This shows how easy it is for the leaders of AKEL to manipulate the base and the voters of AKEL.
I have no doubt Christofias will extract the decision he requires from the base. |
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DM
Villager
Joined: 21 May 2007
Posts: 26
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| Bananiot wrote: |
Very well put, mete, my friend. The decision has already been taken, in my opinion, and despite DM's brilliant effort (based on the kind of rationality one expects to see in a proper democracy and not in a banana republic) the course for AKEL has been charter and it will lead to a full hearted support of Papadopoulos. If you believe Christofias, the decision will be taken towards the end of July.
The way I see things is that the so called base of AKEL (that is a couple of thousand people) will vote secretly on the question put to them (Christofias or Papadopoulos). The vast majority of the base are die-hard members, many of whom are related by blood or otherwise to the nomenclature of AKEL. The Central Committee itself is made up of 105 members of which about 95 are on the pay roll of AKEL. These people, including those of the base, can easily be manipulated. For example they can be told on the side that the time is not right for a communist to become the President and that for the sake of unity of the party (or better and more dramatic, for the sake of survival of the party) patience is needed on this occasion. Obviously they cannot vote for Papadopoulos, given the choice put to them. If they did it would be a major embarrassment for AKEL. I expect a close call, about 55% to 45% in favour of Christofias. Then the party will say that it sacrifices its justifiable right and for the sake of unity and the good of Cyprus it waives its right to elect the new President and supports Papadopoulos for another 5 years.
Basically the same tactics were used in 2003 when the leadership of AKEL imposed Papadopoulos onto the members of AKEL. Until then Papadopoulos was a much hated person in the party. He was involved in the murders of leftists in the late 50's and as a Minister in the early Makarios government recieved funds directly from CIA to wage his anti AKEL propaganda and struggle. Yet, after the various interventions of the leadership, the members of AKEL were happy to accept him as the Presidential candidate of AKEL and later on voted for him. This shows how easy it is for the leaders of AKEL to manipulate the base and the voters of AKEL.
I have no doubt Christofias will extract the decision he requires from the base. |
Bananiot, I do not really know where you base your certainty about the outcome of Akels internal dialogue but you seem to have serious issues with this particular party.
You may be right regarding many of the issues you raised about the events that lead Akel to support TP in 2003. However, you have to take into account the resentment of Akel's members at the time regarding the 10 years of Clerides presidency, especially with issues related with the socieconomic policies. Things such as ATA, right to strike, pensions etc were systematically attacked. The left people could not accept another term of Clerides in power and needed a way out of this mess. They knew very well that Akel could not go on its own as they were bound to lose the elections and relactuntly accepted the option of TP. Having said this one has to have in mind that at the time Akel's base were not given any other option by the leadership. It was TP or nothing. The last 4 years and especially the last 18 months confirmed that TP was not what Akel's supportes envisaged even though he is not exactly the bloody anti-akel persona of the 50's.
I will set another question just for the sake of discussion. Why should the leadership of Akel not take a calculated risk and go it on its own in the first round of the election. In the case of succeeding to get Christofias in the second round then they run a pretty good chance of electing him. In the event of failing to get Christofias in the second round then they can negotiate with TP a new manifesto if they really don't want to go with DISY. In my opinion this is a plausible scenario and I do not thing that TP will refuse to negotiate with Akel at a time that he will be in the need of another 17-20% of the electorate to get a 2nd term in office.
In your post you also say that the members vote will be around 55% for Christofias and 45% for TP. Do you really believe that the members of a party like Akel who have never had the chance to have a party member as a canditate will give 45% to TP? What if the outcome of the members vote is an overwhelming 90% Vs 10% for Christofias which in the mind of any level headed political analyst is the most likely scenario...would such a result give any chance to the leadership of the party and the central comittee to propose TP for canditate? I do not think so. The fact that the question set to the members is Christofias or TP says it all and only a mad man would limit its options that early if he really wanted to go with TP.
Having said all the above I do not claim to be the expert on how Akel works internally, however, I wouldn't be that eager as you to stick my head out and claim to hold the absolute truth, especially at a time when all the developments show that it is much more likely for Akel to go with Christofias as a candidate.
PS: By the way Akel numbers more than 10,000 members and not 2,000 hardliners as you said earlier. |
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Kifeas
Warnings : 6
Ministerial
Joined: 26 Aug 2005
Posts: 2733
Location: Location: Pafos-Cyprus, since 1974 ethnic cleansing. Originally, Lapithos, northern occupied Cyprus.
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| DM wrote: |
| a. Members: the majority of the members of Akel seem to be disatisfied by the way that TP handled both the Cyprus Problem following the rejection of the Annan plan and Socioeconomic issues. |
There is certainly no such thing like a leader without faults and mistakes, and Papadopoulos could not have been an exception during his past term. However, I wonder what you regard as his mistakes in handling the Cyprus problem after the Annan plan referendum, as you have proclaimed, and which were of such critical significance that should they did not occur, always according to you, the cause of the Cyprus issue would have been any different than what it appears to be at the moment. Your statement above sounds to me of a typical cliché nature, and I seriously doubt you are able to substantiate what you have said! The same applies to the so-called socioeconomic issues! What do you think his mistakes were?
| DM wrote: |
| Cyprus Problem: On the Cyprus Problem side, everyone expected that Akel would be in a position to have more say on how the 'No' vote was handled and Akelists were expecting TP to negotiate the plan in order to reach a new version, albeit with a different name, that would tackle a limited number of issue that lead to the 'No' vote. It seems that TP chose to follow a different path which aims to the complete "burying" of the plan, something that we all know that will never be accepted by the international community.. |
The “No” vote was a “No” vote, and nothing more than that! The “No” vote was the decision of the people on a given proposal, it was rejected and the issue of the “No” vote was closed! The “No” vote was not some kind of a wild horse that needed some kind of handling, so that it doesn’t escape and start running away! I do not understand what you people mean with this other meaningless cliché I keep hearing all the time, regarding the way of “handling” the “No” vote! It was the right of the people to say it, and it doesn’t require any kind of handling, as such! What needs handling is the way the Cyprus problem is solved in the best possible and most meaningful way, and not the meaningless slogan of the “No” vote!
You sound like someone whose concern is only how to get a “yes” vote, and not how the Cyprus issue is best solved! You want to investigate how, by changing a few things here and there, a manipulated “Yes” result is extracted, rather than if the Cyprus problem will be solved on an as much as possible closer basis to that of justice, fairness, functionality, longevity, legitimacy and respect for peoples human, cultural and historical rights. You care more about how to cancel the “No” and extract the “Yes,” rather than having a good solution of the Cyprus issue! That is how you sound to me by the way you express yourself, and you are not the only one doing this pathetic mistake! You even go one step further, by claiming that this is also how the Akel electorate thinks and functions, something I believe you neither have the right nor the capacity to affirm with such a generalised certainty!
Aren’t you concerned at all that the biggest problem with the Annan plan 5 -specifically, lies with its very philosophy itself, as much as it is with its numerous negative for the Greek Cypriot community sub-issues? How are you going to touch and affect the core, its philosophy, by just "tackling" a “limited number of issues” (mostly decorative ones) and then serve it to people under a different name? You people send a totally wrong message to the Turkish Cypriot community, by saying this kind of nonsense! If there is to be a re-unification solution, this has to only be based on the philosophy of a ONE federal nation-state; and NOT on a quasi-federal, quasi-confederal, partly one and partly two ethnically based "nation-state" concept, like the Annan plan 5! Alternatively, partition with a substantially higher territory re-instatement to the Greek Cypriot community, sounds much more interesting in my ears, rather than the one based on the almost 30% “Turkish Cypriot” territory of the AP 5!
My goodness! You even know what the international community will or will not accept! Well, since when what kind of solution we are entitled to have in Cyprus, for our own future, should depend on what (in your opinion) the international community would like to accept? The style in which you express things, allow me to say, is incomprehensible! It is sneaky -since you are in no position to claim what this so-called international community accepts or not, and defeatist –since you send the message that all our efforts are in vain because we are doomed to settle for what the others (presumably the stronger ones) will offer us!
I ask you now! If this is the case, then why this so-called international community (i.e. the Anglo-Americans, the EU, the permanent 5 of the UNSC, and many others) are now all backing the “8th of July” agreement which makes no reference to the Annan plan at all, while they themselves make no mention to the Annan plan either? As far as I know and read, the only ones that continue talking about the Annan plan, at least during this last one year, are only the Turkish and the Turkish Cypriot side, and some few of you within the Greek Cypriot community!
Last edited by Kifeas on Tue May 22, 2007 8:45 pm; edited 2 times in total |
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pg
Deputy
Joined: 17 Jan 2006
Posts: 1485
Location: Cyprus
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| DM wrote: |
I will set another question just for the sake of discussion. Why should the leadership of Akel not take a calculated risk and go it on its own in the first round of the election. In the case of succeeding to get Christofias in the second round then they run a pretty good chance of electing him. In the event of failing to get Christofias in the second round then they can negotiate with TP a new manifesto if they really don't want to go with DISY. In my opinion this is a plausible scenario and I do not thing that TP will refuse to negotiate with Akel at a time that he will be in the need of another 17-20% of the electorate to get a 2nd term in office.
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Today I heard Andros Kyprianou state that what ever happens AKEL will not support a DISY candidate in the second round - and he suggested DIKO and EDEK should state the same....
That certainly indicate he has the first round on his mind..., and that the discussions are towards DM's scenario. |
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