Predictions

[turkcyp]

Let's have your predictions.....

These are predictions for the future. I hope this online stay open that long so we can asses the validity of predictions down the road.

I advise you to make your own predictions about the below topics so we can see who got the future right.

Here we go….

Varosha: Turkish Cypriot side will open Varosha to settlement under Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus laws. They will even establish a “Belediye” for it, elected by its residents, who will be responsible for its infrastructure improvements, etc, etc,

Greek Cypriot rights in the North: Turkish Cypriot will keep on extending more rights to Greek Cypriots living or residing in south. Initially they will give them Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus citizenship and right to vote in the elections in north, both for local level “Belediye” and national level “parliament, president etc. etc”. Ministry of education will open more Greek Cypriot schools, and let them run their schools under the laws of Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. Many churches that are not currently used as mosques or museums will be returned back to Church of Cyprus, and will be opened to service under the laws of Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.

Demilitarization. Only Nicosia will be demilitarized. Turkish army will have a major reduction in force, (close to 50% reduction). They will empty any military basis especially in Varosha and along the northern coast shoreline. Number of camps are further going to be reduced, by consolidating the remaining camps into fewer camps that hold higher density soldiers. On average a military camp in north right now hold around way less than 1000 soldiers. Population density in these camps are very law.

Property Rights: Many uninhibited property will be returned back to their previous owners under the new so-called property board. But even without waiting the Greek Cypriots to apply to the board, government will return many of the unoccupied property back to heir previous owners. These properties for example will include Varosha, many beach front properties that fall under the military camps along the Kyrenia coastline. The idea of emptying military camps and give it back to Greek Cypriots are going to be done hand in hand with the demilitarization issue. These lands which will be return back are going to be some prime land to entice the previous Greek Cypriot owners to come and claim it, otherwise political aim of this plan would be nonsense. Also they will open many government owned prime property to settlement to satisfy more Greek Cypriots.

Setters: A census which is due will be performed to learn the actual number of settlers. The laws will be changed so that it will require everybody passport to enter the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. This will be done to up-ease Turkish Cypriot society who is very vary of entrance of mainly poor mainland Kurds to Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus with IDs. But in order to not show preferential treatment to Greek Cypriots unfortunately they will ask them to show passport as well. This would be bad move in terms of reconciliation but inevitable as a result of political consequence. The citizenship rights will be further restricted in Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus

Turkish Cypriot rights in the south: More Turkish Cypriots will join Sener Levent and Akinci in trying to safeguard their communal rights from 1960 constitution. If these initiatives do not get anywhere, they will got to Supreme Court of Republic of Cyprus and at the end all the way to ECHR courts and/or EU courts. These rights are the extreme importance to Turkish Cypriots because at the end of the game, I predict that we will not find a solution to Cyprus, but simply continue with current Republic of Cyprus.

Legal Cases: ECHR will not accept the property commission set up in north initially. But the amount of cases open in ECHR will increase tenfold in time. And in the meantime when Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus government start making all the above initiatives about property they will direct all the cases to this property commission. Furthermore some Turkish Cypriots will start suing Republic of Cyprus for preventing to buy/sell property in north/south of the island. Some will find Greek Cypriots that are ready to sell their properties to Turkish Cypriots, and when Republic of Cyprus prevents them they will sue her. In the last two years many Greek Cypriots had sold their properties to developers in the north of the island. These developers usually make a contractual agreement but never present this agreement to land registry so the title never actually legally changes hands. But any of these agreements are actually done under the British law between Greek Cypriots and British Cos. Owed by Turkish Cypriots. So soon they will start trying to get legitimacy to their contracts in land registry as well.

Cyprus Solution: This will be out into freezer by T.Pap. and Turkey. As we have guessed last year, both sides now that there can not be a solution in Cyprus before Turkish EU entry, because Turkey is not stupid enough to let Cyprus card go before obtainig membership. And at the same time Republic of Cyprus is not stupid enough to let Turkey in before asserting their legitimacy over the whole island. So this will be solved only simultaneously when Turkey is entering the EU. Of course this means that no other Eu member should object Turkey’s accession. And toward the end of accession talks we will find a Republic of Cyprus government as the advocate of Turkey in EU(just like Greece). What suits Republic of Cyprus hand is that they should be willing to hold the right and intent of veto Turkish accession while all the rest if 25 (or 27 then) holds but die snot intent to use the veto so that their veto can make sense. Far fetch scenario. We will see. And in the next 10 years we will dilly dolly around on issues discussed in so called “technical-committees” without the legitimacy given to them by the people.

Direct Trade and Flights to north and between Republic of Cyprus and Turkey: This issue will be solved solved through Turkish accession process. Turkey will drag this issue all the way to the end of accession talks. Issues like this which have direct relation with Cyprus will never be solved so those chapters of 35 relating to these issues will never be closed all the way to the end. These few chapters relating to Cyprus will be solved in the way Republic of Cyprus likes them at the end, like around 2012 or so. And Turkey will defacto recognize Republic of Cyprus for a year or so until they finalize their EU accession ad will dejure recognize Cyprus after that.

Final Outlook: Around 2015 or so, after all the communal rights of Turkish Cypriots are safeguarded in the Republic of Cyprus, Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus will seize to exist as Turkey is entering EU as member, at the same time, but not before that. We will have a situation where every side has won, with some losers like nationalists on both sides, and some individuals who had lost their properties (but they will obtain some sort of compensation for their properties), so the eternal losers will be nationalists. We will have the 1960 constitution with some amendments to it like scrapping 70/30 rule, municipalities etc. etc.. but we will have Turkish Cypriots concentrated in the north and among them would be around 20-25% Greek Cypriots who managed to get their properties back and who have no problem being a minority in the north among Turkish Cypriots while being majority in the whole island.

[Khan]

Interesting read Turkcyp, but I honestly do not believe this will end with Turkish membership of the EU. France and Austrias referendum will put an end to Turkeys accesion. Where this will leave Cyprus i dont know, probably unresolved, with a direct trading Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.

[Eric Dayi]

[bg_turk]

i agree with most of your predictions turkcyp, the only thing is that I think that the long run outcome will be partition rather than a return to the 1960 Republic of Cyprus.

[Bananiot]

Interesting thoughts Turkcyp but I am not sure I can follow your scenario at the very end of the road. You are suggesting that we will get a bizonal, bicommunal federation but the 1960 constitution will apply. How is this possible? I think you need to change the final act. A confederation is probably the most likely outcome should your predictions come true. Two states, loosely bonded within a confederal system, is probably a more realistic ending to your scenario.

The issue of Turkey's accession is of paramount importance to your predictions and I agree with you that we are talking for about 15 years from today. Turkey I believe will eventually become a member of this club but so much depend upon this eventuality. It seems that the omens are good because it is in the interest of the geostrategic masters of our area for Turkey to become a member. This is how politics work and this is how our world goes round.

[turkcyp]

[boulio]

[Khan]

boulio, you have to accept that probably no solution will grant Greek Cypriot the majority of their property back. We cannot have a BBF if both constituent states are Greek Cypriot majority, but of course all Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot who dont get their property back will have to be compensated somehow.

[Khan]

[boulio]

[turkcyp]

[Ferforge]

a couple predictions from me...

I agree to everything, maras, military withdrawal, greek cypriots granted citizenship etc.

For about the Turkey-EU accession, I guess it is a big big game. French politicians addressing internal political sensitivities for votes and talking on referandum, but at the same time french ministers are filling businessman into planes and bringing them to TR... So, my prediction is that neither french nor dutch cannot risk their economic interests and make a popular denial for TR membership. Cost would be too high for them. Austria is a special case, those racist hypocrits can do anything, but can also be suppressed by big brothers in EU, as they'd been before.

My prediction is that, tpaps trouble making and blackmailing strategy will bring TR into a point of final decision for her EU aspirations. And there will come a historic declaration, as Inonu did to Americans, "a new world will be set up and TR will find her place in that". Nobody could risk such a turn in TR's direction, not Americans and not EU. That would be a fatal failure which can change the course of history.

Crocodile tpap seems unaware of the fact that angloamerican's are quite sensitive for not bringing things to this point. Hopefully, he will be reelected and will be himself.. so that americans and brits continue their course for ease of isolations....

I totally trust Talat, for bringing order to things in KKTC. He will find a way for undoing mistakes in property issues. He is also talented to keep Turkey committed to her support and at the same time convince them to decrease military presence.

The moment, when it is understood that there will not be a foreseeable resolution with the racist mindset of crocodile tpap and the public backing after him, investments will flourish in North. As it did in referandum times. Turkish water and natural gas will change "life" in north. Also new technologies for data and communications (GSM, ADSL, Winet etc) will be introduced. New tourism investments as new hotels and marinas are already in progress.

As you may understand I am optimistic for our "future" and the "quality of life" in north, despite everything greek.cyp.government do. But I am not hopeful on a "resolution" and "common state" possible in near future. It is practically impossible before the eoka generation in power in south reach end of their natural lives...)

[Mete]

turkcyp, nice predictions some of which I tend to agree but the biggest question is the timeline. When will all this happen? Because I don't care about a solution after I'm dead

[-mikkie2-]

My prediction is simple turkcyp. The Turkish Cypriot's will end up being a thorn in the side of Turkey. If negotiations don't start soon the problem for Turkey becomes greater and they will jettison the Turkish Cypriot's if they have to. In the absence of a solution there will only be one course to take and that is to rejoin the Republic of Cyprus!

[cypezokyli]

congrats turkcyp.
whether the predictions realise or not, u have presented all the different levels in which the cyppro is played.
your predictions, appear to be more optimistic than mine - and i do hope that all or at least some become correct.

my fear, is that usually in the game our leaders play, the main focus, is how to appear winners for the public who votes for them (a microexample is ledras, where none of our leaders lost face, but the cypriot people lost). i cannot imagine how such concessions will be made without sth in return (and then discussing how big that return should be...)

hope you right