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Xenos 2Fan
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sophisticatedbeggar
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***Can you please copy and paste here? I'm not registered... Ta... |
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brother
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| Well everything in the report rings sound and i also agree that the EU is not turning out to be the powerhouse that most EU aspirants hoped for that could challenge the US might. |
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Xenos 2Fan
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| sophisticatedbeggar wrote: |
***Can you please copy and paste here? I'm not registered... Ta... |
Turkey is caught up in Europe
Sunday, November 20, 2005
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OPINIONS
All News »
» 'Let it be small, let it be mine'
(Yusuf KANLI)
» Anti-Americanism revisited
(Doğu Ergil)
» A frıend that Turkey needs
(ARIANA FERENTINOU)
»
Opinion by Barry RUBIN
BARRY RUBIN
A few months ago my family had a great vacation in southern France, near the Spanish border. The countryside was full of vineyards and villages which looked identical to how they must have appeared centuries ago. But behind the scenic beauty was hidden the key secret of the European Union.
After all, France so over-produced wine that only fifty percent of what those fields produce is sold. And how can that country sustain such high living standards and a short work week when its economy is so backward?
The answer, of course, is that the EU subsidizes France's inefficiency and traditional society with massive amounts of money. President Jacques Chirac has been the uncrowned king of Europe, having things pretty much his own way.
The fact that this system benefited France so much while costing his people nothing is why Chirac remained so politically powerful for so long. Europe paid to maintain the traditional French life style and got nothing in return. That's a pretty good deal for France, not such a good deal for Europe.
But now Chirac is nearing the end of his term and his political powers have declined steadily. For example, his response to the Paris riots was pitiful, late and without any energy or even sense of strategy. The European constitution was a disaster. And all those new members may have their own ideas of what they would like to see as EU policy.
Looking beyond Chirac, of course, the two leading candidates to replace Chirac are Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin, who favors Turkey's membership in the EU, and Interior Minister Nicholas Sarkozy, who opposes it. Nominally, the huge riots in France seem to have favored Villepin, but there could voters who felt the government handling of the upheaval was too weak could turn to Sarkozy.
Ironically, Villepin is an orthodox Gaullist who would probably do little to make the kinds of changes needed to meet immigrants' demands. Sarkozy, who superficially seems tougher on the immigrants, is the one who actually proposes policies -- preferential hiring and major economic changes to help increase hiring and chances for small business -- would do more to help them.
This situation has a number of significant aspects for Turkey:
- The old EU order which allowed France to dominate and exploit the organization is fading. This is especially true given the election of a Christian Democratic led government in Germany, the country on which France has previously most depended in its ability to rule Europe.
- The new EU members from eastern and central Europe have not yet decided whether they are going to accept or rebel against the way the EU has been managed.
- The EU is demoralized and trying to figure out its direction in the face of several setbacks, including the constitutional debacle.
- The political situation in France itself is confused and unlikely to be resolved until a new leader and strategy emerges, a process which will take several years.
- A coalition Social Democratic and Christian Democratic government in Germany will also be divided over policy and find it hard to make decisions.
- As France, and perhaps other European states, devote more money to helping their large immigrant communities they will not want to devote money to helping less developed new members of the EU.
It is well known, of course, that many Europeans are reluctant to admit Turkey to the EU given cultural and religious issues. While it is unfair, these doubts will probably be intensified by the recent rioting. The fact is that in Germany, Holland, and other countries, Turkish immigrants have been the most valuable workers and small businessmen while also being the least troublesome residents in terms of crime or political extremism of all the immigrants. But there will be a large number of people too misinformed or ignorant to understand this point, especially since giving full benefits to Turkey would mean even more foreign workers at a time when Europeans feel they already have too many.
Far less discussed, however, are the effects of strategy, leadership, and economic factors regarding Turkey's membership. With the EU lacking leadership, a looming battle over who holds the power in the organization, a loss of confidence, and leadership vacuums in France and Germany, the EU is not going to be making tough decisions quickly. Already a highly bureaucratic organization, the EU is going to delay on controversial and complex issues.
This means that progress on Turkey's EU membership is going to be slow, even slower than the snail-like pace that would have happened without all these problems.
There is one other all-important point for Turkey to consider in these latest developments. The old dream of a powerful, united Europe capable of challenging or even surpassing the United States in political and economic terms is pretty dead. Valuable as EU membership might be for Turkey, it is not an across-the-board strategic solution to Turkish interests. While pursuing full membership, it might be a good time for Turkey to rethink its expectations and priorities.
* Professor Barry Rubin is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of Turkish Studies journal. He could be contacted at profbarryrubin@yahoo.com. |
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