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-mikkie2-
Mukhtar/is
Joined: 29 Aug 2005
Posts: 603
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When you have Gul making a speach at the ceremony last night talking about 'two realities' on the island, then people need to realise that Turkey has not changed her stance on Cyprus.
They want a 2 state confederal type solution - partition in other words. How can we accept this suituation as Cypriots? This I think is the genuine fear that Papadopoulos is afraid of and that is what I think he is trying to avert. The Annan Plan as is or with minor changes will not be acceptable to us. |
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Viewpoint
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Mukhtar/is
Joined: 14 Aug 2005
Posts: 971
Location: Lefkosa/Nicosia
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| -mikkie2- wrote: |
When you have Gul making a speach at the ceremony last night talking about 'two realities' on the island, then people need to realise that Turkey has not changed her stance on Cyprus.
They want a 2 state confederal type solution - partition in other words. How can we accept this suituation as Cypriots? This I think is the genuine fear that Papadopoulos is afraid of and that is what I think he is trying to avert. The Annan Plan as is or with minor changes will not be acceptable to us. |
How did you arrive at that conclusion? maybe he was referring to the 2 communities or the Annan plan via UN, I would not jump to any conclusions. You should view this as a positive step as Turkey moves more towards becoming europeanized it will change its perspective in many areas not just Cyprus. The key issue next year will be opening of ports to Southern Cyprus and what this will bring towards moving forward in a new round of negotiations. But I still hold out your leader will not go back to the table he will provide loads of excuses for home consumption to keep Greek Cypriots happy and use EU leverage to extract concessions out of Turkey during each chapter over the 10/15 years, this is in fact old politics from an old mindset of forcing the 1960 agreements on the Turkish Cypriot community. |
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erolz
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Joined: 11 Aug 2005
Posts: 4195
Location: Kyrenia / Girne
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brother
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Joined: 15 Aug 2005
Posts: 8920
Location: London/Cyprus
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Hi serkan and welcome to the forum  |
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cannedmoose
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Joined: 12 Aug 2005
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Location: National Forest, England
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| erolz wrote: |
| It would seem the croation linkage was the means by which Austria was convinced to sign. |
It was almost a straight replay of the Rhodes European Council in 1994, when Greece demanded the beginning of accession negotiations with Cyprus as a condition of permitting the Turkey-EU customs union. To be honest, Austria got exactly what they were really looking for and they still have numerous opportunities to derail the process later down the line. Croatia's accession process will be expedited far more quickly than that of Turkey, so they will safely be a member by the time that a decision on Turkey needs to be taken. As a result, Austria has its friend and ally in the Union, and still has the ability (through a referendum) to reject Turkey at the final hurdle.
Having read some of the Turkish press this morning, this is recognised and I think this will have an impact on how fast and how real many of the forthcoming changes in the Turkish state will be. What I'm saying is that while procedures and institutions can be changed on a superficial level in order to satisfy the letter of the acquis, real change is less clear-cut and may be held back until such time as membership is secure. We see this in a number of the new EU states where legal changes were made, but implementation lags behind.
What are the consequences of this for Cyprus. It could go three ways: either Turkey will want to ease this sore as soon as possible, either they will wait until a period when other issues are paramount in order to deflect the attention of the nationalists who are anti- any discussion of Cyprus, or they will delay movement on Cyprus until the final moments (i.e. a decade from now) and essentially hold Cyprus as a hostage to their accession course - using the same brutal bargaining tactics displayed by Austria.
Let's hope it's one of the first two.
P.S. I'm watching the news on PIK and I've just seen how Abdullah Gul's name is written in Greek... how awkward! 
P.P.S. Welcome Serkan, good to have you aboard. |
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erolz
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Posts: 4195
Location: Kyrenia / Girne
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cannedmoose
Warnings : 4
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Joined: 12 Aug 2005
Posts: 5357
Location: National Forest, England
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Thanks for the link Erol, it's an interesting document. The points that I'd note are as follows:
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| Turkey's unequivocal commitment to good neighbourly relations and its undertaking to resolve any outstanding border disputes in conformity with the principle of peaceful settlement of disputes in accordance with the United Nations Charter, including if necessary jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice |
In other words, Turkey needs to strive for a resolution of the Aegean frontiers with Greece and towards a Cyprus settlement.
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| Turkey's continued support for efforts to achieve a comprehensive settlement of the Cyprus problem within the UN framework and in line with the principles on which the Union is founded, including steps to contribute to a favourable climate for a comprehensive settlement, and progress in the normalisation of bilateral relations between Turkey and all EU Member States, including the Republic of Cyprus. |
In other words, recognition of the Republic of Cyprus and showing goodwill in future negotiations.
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| the fulfilment of Turkey's obligations under the Association Agreement and its Additional Protocol extending the Association Agreement to all new EU Member States, in particular those pertaining to the EU-Turkey customs union, as well as the implementation of the Accession Partnership, as regularly revised. |
In other words, opening of ports and airports to Republic of Cyprus traffic.
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| Turkey will participate in economic and monetary union from accession as a Member State with a derogation and shall adopt the euro as its national currency following a Council decision to this effect on the basis of an evaluation of its fulfilment of the necessary conditions. The remaining acquis in this area fully applies from accession. |
This is an interesting one. Although Turkey will not become a member of the Eurozone from day one, this essentially locks Turkey into a process of changing from the YTL to the Euro. I think this is a new measure, I don't remember seeing it in other accession documents, although I haven't see that of Croatia. |
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cannedmoose
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Joined: 12 Aug 2005
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Location: National Forest, England
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Oops, forgot to give mention to the infamous paragraph seven as well...
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| In the period up to accession, Turkey will be required to progressively align its policies towards third countries and its positions within international organisations (including in relation to the membership by all EU Member States of those organisations and arrangements) with the policies and positions adopted by the Union and its Member States. |
In other words, Turkey will need to lift its objections to the Republic of Cyprus's membership of international organisations like NATO.
With all these potential pitfalls, I think it's in Turkey's interests to go for a Cyprus settlement ASAP. At least if the talks then fail because of Greek Cypriot objections, Turkey could say to the rest of the EU, 'look, we've tried, it's the Greek Cypriots who are blocking progress'. I know this may be unpalatable to the nationalists, but it would certainly make the accession path a lot smoother. |
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city
Site Admin
Joined: 15 Aug 2005
Posts: 3370
Location: Larnaca area
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yes, thats what I have heard already a few days ago. Media said, that _if_ Austria would give in then only for the price of talks with Croatia starting. This could now be granted due to the results Carla del Ponte (sp?) brought from latest talks in Croatia.
Something else: why does Austria want Croatia so desperately? Am I missing some historic link here? |
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cannedmoose
Warnings : 4
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Joined: 12 Aug 2005
Posts: 5357
Location: National Forest, England
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| city wrote: |
| Something else: why does Austria want Croatia so desperately? Am I missing some historic link here? |
They're next door neighbours, and Croatian ports on the Adriatic are probably Austria's closest seaports so there's the potential for much trade. Croatia was also historically a province of the Austro-Hungarian empire, so there's history there too. Plus, if I remember correctly, Croatians are by-and-large catholic, as is Austria, so there are religious affiliations there too. The cross-border trade issue would be the big factor though. |
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cannedmoose
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Joined: 12 Aug 2005
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Location: National Forest, England
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An interesting poll in Turkish Daily News... here's where it stands after 1,089 votes.
A Christian club 41.9%
A socioeconomic and political bloc 39.1%
An economic bloc 7.3%
A project for peace in Europe 6.4%
A modernization project 2.8%
A political bloc 2.4%
I think the alienation felt by many Turks is demonstrated by this result. I think if the poll was conducted anywhere else, the 'Christian Club' option would probably be last. |
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cannedmoose
Warnings : 4
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Joined: 12 Aug 2005
Posts: 5357
Location: National Forest, England
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brother
Warnings : 3
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Joined: 15 Aug 2005
Posts: 8920
Location: London/Cyprus
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