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The EU reach a deal on starting Turkey talks.
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cannedmoose
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 03, 2005 10:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

2Fan wrote:
When the time comes Turkey will pass unless the EU does some major ass kissing because in 10-15 years Turkey will not need the EU.


I think you're misreading the situation. In 15 or even 50 years from now, the EU will still be one of the major economic powers in the global economy, just because the European economies are growing slower than China or India is irrelevant in the medium term as the overall size and stage of development of the European economy is so much larger. Add to this the fact that Turkey's economic success is intimately tied to that of Europe - more than 50 per cent of Turkey's trade is with the EU and that figure will only increase in the coming years. The accession process will also tie Turkey's economic and political fortunes to the rest of Europe, which will encourage multinationals to invest in Turkey as a result of the stability that this linkage engenders. Therefore if at the end of that process the Turkish government tells the EU where to go, we would potentially witness a flight of capital from the Turkish economy which would have massive consequences. Yes, Turkey is going to be a major regional player in future, but never to the extent where it will be 'equal' in either economic or political muscle to the EU as a whole.

I'm sad to say that this attitude smacks a little of the 'little Englander' mentality displayed by some of my fellow countrymen who believe that the UK could still be a dominant force outside the Union. No offence intended to my friends 2fan and Bro', but that's how it comes across to me.
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gabs

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 03, 2005 10:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

2 fan

must agree with The Moose.....

yes turkey will be a big player in fifty years, but even more so if in Europe.

Immediate benefits?- foreign investment, and a general feelgood factor for the people of Turkey.
Turkey wanted Europe and have now been give that chance. Turkey has achieved much in the way of europeanisation and modernisation in the last few years, and here is an official endorsement.

Does it mean more money in turkish wage packets?..............well yes but not as much as the increase in cost of living which Turkish people can now look forward to. On this subject - that is the prices you will have to pay, you have no idea, how expensive its all going to get. Its a bit like getting married, but Good Luck to the Turkish people.

ps if your thinking of buying property do it now...


Last edited by gabs on Mon Oct 03, 2005 11:07 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Xenos 2Fan
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 03, 2005 10:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

No offense taken Moose, I welcome your honesty and expect it from you.

I concur with most of your thoughts however, I do not agree with you when you say that there may be a mass financial exodus if Turkey passes on membership. Especially if foreign investment is satisfied with the returns it is getting on it's principal. That's like me pulling my investment money from a company that chooses to do business with another company or country that I have no liking for. I think what matters is the bottom line. As I have stated before, Turkey will never turn her back on the EU completely as she is not politically or economically unsophisticated. All I'm saying is that in 10-15 years Turkey will have many many more choices to consider and she will not be held hostage by countries like Austria. I hope this makes sense. Having said this, I pray that these talks will lead to a permanent solution for Cyprus which is both fair to Turkey and to Cyprus.

BTW check your email again.
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gabs

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 03, 2005 11:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

2fan

dont forget that in 10-15 as a member of europe together with its asian links and russian trade Turkey will become an International center for all sorts of Trade. She will be in an excellent economic environment, with huge commercial potential.
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Xenos 2Fan
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 03, 2005 11:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

gabs wrote:
2 fan

must agree with The Moose.....

yes turkey will be a big player in fifty years, but even more so if in Europe.

Immediate benefits?- foreign investment, and a general feelgood factor for the people of Turkey.
Turkey wanted Europe ands have now been give that chance. Turkey has achieved much in the way of europeanisation and modernisation in the last few years, and here is an official endorsement.

Does it mean more money in turkish wage packets?..............well yes but not as much as the increase in cost of living which Turkish people can now look forward to. On this subject - that is the prices you will have to pay, you have no idea, how expensive its all going to get. Good Luck to the Turkish people.

Gabs,
My wife just returned from turkey and she has already told me of the price hikes of goods and services just in my home town of Mersin which historically was somewhat immune to rate hikes in cities like Istanbul, Izmir, Ankara etc..etc..
It is becoming increasingly more difficult to live for people and they expect for things to get worse before they get better.


ps if your thinking of buying property do it now...


I have been buying property in Turkey for the past 3 years in anticipation of this and I have to tell you I am very glad I did. I have also looked into property in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and have come to the conclusion that it is to dangerous to do so presently. I'll wait till a solution is found so I can make sure I can hold on to it. Cool
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gabs

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 03, 2005 11:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
I have been buying property in Turkey for the past 3 years in anticipation of this and I have to tell you I am very glad I did.



well done.............you've just made a great profit, prices will rocket now.


oh yeah other benefits include qualifying for the world cup next week, winning in Germany next year and then holding the flag waving celebration party in...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Vienna
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Bananiot
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 03, 2005 11:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The news from Brussels are good this evening. Hopefully Turkey will become a full member in 10 or so years. My fear is that Cyprus may be side stepped now. Remember, back in 1999, when Greece of Simitis and George Papandreou pushed for the accession of Cyprus, it was not a case of sheer blackmail, I believe, but a very well thought of strategy that entailed the solution of the Cyprob and the accession of a united Cyprus to the EU. Turkey would reap the benefit of the effort she put to find a solution and would soon join Greece and Cyprus in the club. Things backfired when Simitis and Klerides lost the elections in Greece and Cyprus respectfully. Ferhoigen, speaking in a very undiplomatic language, accused Papadopoulos of deceiving the EU.

I now wonder whether Turkey would be in any hurry to solve the Cyprob. Perhaps turkey will do this on the eve of its accession, if and when it happens. By that time there will be no Cyprob to be solved. Papadopoulos has failed (did not even try) to attach the path of Turkey to the solution of the Cyprob and has done so missing several cornerstones like December last year and of course today. I think he did this on purpose. He knows that at the moment (and for ever, I believe) the only solution that can be negotiated is the one based on the A Plan. Thus, he will not make any move that will result in him accepting negotiations which will bring the A Plan in front of him again. He therefore let important dates pass while Cyprus gained nothing that can make us optimistic about a solution.

Nevertheless, I am glad Turkey will now start negotiations. Good luck.
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Xenos 2Fan
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2005 12:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

gabs wrote:
Quote:
I have been buying property in Turkey for the past 3 years in anticipation of this and I have to tell you I am very glad I did.



well done.............you've just made a great profit, prices will rocket now.


oh yeah other benefits include qualifying for the world cup next week, winning in Germany next year and then holding the flag waving celebration party in...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Vienna



HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH......From your lips to God's ears my friend. Wouldn't that be the ultimate irony? I just cracked open a bottle of wine and I dedicate my first drink to all our friends on this forum. I hope good things will become of this new chapter in Turkey's history. Cheers and Sherefe!
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cannedmoose
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2005 12:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think 2fan is my new best buddy Laughing Laughing Laughing

Congratulations, gia sou re
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Xenos 2Fan
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2005 12:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cannedmoose wrote:
I think 2fan is my new best buddy Laughing Laughing Laughing

Congratulations, gia sou re


Same to you Moose and all of our Greek and Turkish speaking brethren.
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cannedmoose
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2005 1:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Article in The Economist... as the title says, better late than never... but many pitfalls still lie ahead. Apparently it is Austria who assumes the EU Presidency next... just imagine this in conjunction with a Merkel/Sarkozy axis :?

http://www.economist.com/agenda/displaystory.cfm?story_id=4474123
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Serkan

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2005 5:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi guys,

Im new to the forum.

Here is an interesting link in regards to this topic if you have not already read it.

http://today.reuters.com/business/newsarticle.aspx?type=tnBusinessNews&storyID=nN03617331

Cheers.
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Xenos 2Fan
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2005 5:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Serkan wrote:
Hi guys,

Im new to the forum.

Here is an interesting link in regards to this topic if you have not already read it.

http://today.reuters.com/business/newsarticle.aspx?type=tnBusinessNews&storyID=nN03617331

Cheers.


Hosgeldin/Welcome to the forum Serkan and thank you for your post. Looking forward to your future posts.
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Alexandros Lordos

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2005 7:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bananiot wrote:
The news from Brussels are good this evening. Hopefully Turkey will become a full member in 10 or so years.


Indeed, the news are good!

Bananiot wrote:
My fear is that Cyprus may be side stepped now ... I now wonder whether Turkey would be in any hurry to solve the Cyprob. Perhaps turkey will do this on the eve of its accession, if and when it happens.


My thought on the matter is that Turkey will try to "slot" a solution to the Cyprus Problem for a period when it will have the least pressures in the local political front, because the Turkish Government knows that new negotiations will be politically costly.

Having said that, Turkey has every motive to rush: Within a few months, pressure from the EU for Turkey to implement the protocol will become severe, and having to open their ports to Greek Cypriot ships is an embarassment that Turkey does not wish to endure.

Bananiot wrote:
Papadopoulos knows that at the moment (and for ever, I believe) the only solution that can be negotiated is the one based on the A Plan. Thus, he will not make any move that will result in him accepting negotiations which will bring the A Plan in front of him again.


Here I tend to agree with you. It is becoming clearer and clearer that the Papadopoulos government is working towards a "European Solution", with "human rights for all", "no official distinctions based on ethnicity" etc. etc. Especially now that Turkish membership of the EU seems to have become inevitable, the Republic of Cyprus government will push for the maximum, knowing that Turkey will not easily sacrifice its EU accession course.

I personally disagree with this approach, because it disregards one critical parameter: The relationship with Turkish Cypriots as a community. Tassos is clearly distancing himself from the principle of political equality, his refusal to meet with Talat and the propaganda that "two thirds of the people in the north are settlers anyway" is sending very clear messages about his intentions...

Tassos has abandoned the Clerides approach of rapprochement with the Turkish Cypriots, which Clerides had cultivated through numerous meeting with the then Turkish Cypriot leader. This is a pity, since the shift in approach has happened precisely at the time when the helm of the Turkish Cypriot community was taken by an altogether more reasonable and moderate leader ...

What will happen now? The EU will push for a solution, the US will push for a solution, Greece and Turkey will desire a solution, the UN will try to work for a solution, but the Cypriots themselves will be dragging their feet, each of the two sides struggling to avoid a solution of the type it fears - "Annan-type", or "European".
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Bananiot
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2005 8:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oh dear! I heard Kleanthous (DIKO Vice President) on the radio this morning going to work. He explicitly said that the government will do anything to avoid a situation where it finds itself in front of Annan Plan as is or with minimal changes. It all makes sense now.

Alexandros said

Quote:
Having said that, Turkey has every motive to rush: Within a few months, pressure from the EU for Turkey to implement the protocol will become severe, and having to open their ports to Greek Cypriot ships is an embarrassment that Turkey does not wish to endure.


I am not sure about this. I think Turkey has been given the opportunity to delay things right up to the eve of accession. Certainly this is true for the infamous recognition of the Republic of Cyprus which became target no. 1 for our government. Anyway, my frustration with the government is that it set targets which are secondary or tertiary while ignoring the most important task, the solution of the Cyprob.

Dear friends. We do not want a solution! The UN knows this and they will not push for negotiations unless they want to exert pressure on Papadopoulos who will keep repeating that any negotiations must be thoroughly prepared and no tight schedules are accepted and arbitration is not wanted etc, etc.

The international community may wait until 2008 when Presidential elections take place and if Papadopoulos is elected again ... partition (the next best solution according to him) would be established. I have to hand it to Papadopoulos. In two and a half years he has managed to instill into the majority of Greek Cypriot's that partition is a favourable option. Of course, we will blame partition on the conspiring foreigners, but this will be only for internal consumption, to quench the vanity of the natives.
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