Light at the end of the tunnel?

[Alexandros Lordos]

It would seem that the long period of "hibernation" in which the Cyprus Problem had entered after April 2004 may be coming to an end.

Rumour has it that after October 3rd, Kofi Annan intends to start a new initiative for a Comprehensive Settlement. Apparently, Turkey would favor the re-commencement of negotiations after that date, since the situation with Cyprus has now become very embarassing, politically costly, and dangerous for Turkey's EU accession course. All the other countries that favor Turkey's EU accession have now become aware that unless the Cyprus Problem is solved soon, it will be very difficult for Turkey to join the EU.

Until now, Turkey certainly did now want a recommencement of negotiations, because of the fear that she might be cornered, blackmailed, or made to look like the intransigent side. Now, however, the picture is radically different.

Greece, to the best of my understanding, is distant and aloof, and would not be particularly bothered either way - negotiations or no negotiations, solution or no solution.

As for the Cypriots, the problem remains that Turkish Cypriots ask for guarantees that in new negotiations only minimal changes will be made to the Plan, while the Greek Cypriots ask for guarantees that substantial changes will be made not just minimal.

So, overall, the picture I see developing from the UN's point of view, is that now there are no external political obstacles to new negotiations, so the UN will begin to pro-actively seek common ground between Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot positions, with the new UN special representative going to and fro, between Papadopulos and Talat, on a regular basis ...

And this would be the beginning.

[-mikkie2-]

Hi Alexandre,

The front page of Politis on Sunday gave indications that the Cyprus problem will be on the agenda before the end of the year.

Those people that think that the problem will take the length of Turkish entry negotiations in the EU are wrong in my opinion.

The problems that Turkey has been facing in Europe in the last 6 months is a taste for what is to come if the problem remains unresolved and that is why a solution is needed much sooner than much later.

Minor changes to the Annan plan will be unacceptable in my view. It would seem that there is support for some of the issues raised by the Greek Cypriot side regarding property and the functioning of the unified state. Perhaps we will get a proper federation as opposed to the confederation that the current plan gives. This phase will put Papadopoulos to the test and I think (and I hope) many people will be surprised.

[Viewpoint]

[Kifeas]

[Bananiot]

This is how I see things. The SG of the UN, Annan, will make another effort after the 3rd of October, for a comprehensive solution to the Cyprob. The basis for any new negotiations will no doubt be his Plan. The sore point will be the changes to it that can be accepted by both sides. The Turkish Cypriot's, quite obviously, will accept minimal changes, probably the ones outlined by AKEL in the Spring of 2004 (not sure if AKEL still accepts its own propositions for changes). Papadopoulos will push for numerous changes that alter the philosophy of the Plan. I cannot see how he can succeed in his objective given that he has no allies where it matters. Besides, his numerous changes that he envisages may just be the nail in the coffin for the Plan.

As a result, any movement on behalf of the SG will aim at pressing the Greek Cypriot side to accept the A Plan with a few changes only. This constitutes a major headache for Papadopoulos and will do everything possible to avoid getting involved with such negotiations where he cannot win, since he will either accept an Annan 6 Plan (anathema to him) or shoulder the blame for another failed attempt at a solution (he will be remembered as the partition President) which, he probably prefers, as his stated view is that the situation remaining as it is is the second best solution. Second best to what, one might ask? Certainly not to BBF. I have never believed that he cares for BBF.

[Viewpoint]

[Kifeas]

[Viewpoint]

[Bananiot]

In this case, who is the donkey, kifeas?

Anyway, I was only expressing my view and expected a civilised response from the members, but what does one expect to hear from the mouth of a crow?

It makes me lough when I read that little tiny wee Cyprus is playing the role of the champion of the human rights and that our glorious leader will confront the mighty of the world and their geo strategic interests.

We shall see ...

[boomerang]

Guys, off the subject a bit, but can someone tell me what changes Tassos wants to see in the plan?

[Viewpoint]

Kifeas your last few posts have been very derogatory, you think you have the high ground and are way above everyone else, ease up man we are all human and we all have our own opinions.

[-mikkie2-]

Bananiot,

I don't agree that only minimal changes will be accepted to the plan.

It is generally understood, that the property provisions need to be altered to make them more tangible for the refugees. It is also understood that the economy of the new state needs to be unified in a more concrete manner than proposed under the current plan.

Being overly dismissive of the concerns of our side will lead to another impasse.

What is needed is to convince the Turkish Cypriot leadership that their interests will not necessarily be undermined with the changes proposed. They also need to be convinced that there will be no return to past events and that they should be more trusting of the EU process and its institutions to protect their rights.

In the end, all we are doing is speculating. I believe this time around things may well be very different because the dynamics that affect Cyprus have dramatically changed in the past 2 years.

[Viewpoint]

[Bananiot]

I think Prentergast gave the answer to this question in his recent report to the SG after he visited Cyprus and listened (orally if you please) to the concerns of Papadopoulos.

[boomerang]