Christofias Victory

[Londoner]

Now the election is over, the speculation can begin, what do you long time posters expect to happen over the next 12-18 months?

[stavrizatz]

Christofias will make persistent efforts to re-unite Cyprus so it is up the Turkish Cypriots really if they really want to unite with the rest of Cyprus. The July agreements are the basis on how the negotiations should go, it is up to the parties if they keep their word and take the action agreed.

[pg]

The July 8 agreement is really just an agreement that negotiations should start - and without it, would they not start?

Anyway, although Christofias is as hungry for power as everyone else, I do believe that his greatest which is to go down in the books as the one who solved the Cyprus problem.

In order to get the thing going there may indeed be a need for some tactical maneuvering on the international arena - and although I do not think this is AKELs stronger side, most likely DISY and Vasiliou should be able to help there. Most important is to engage the Turkish Cypriot side, something that is probably best done with honesty and Christofias may have a chance there. I am not sure how internal Turkish Cypriot politics will fall out - but a momentum needs to be built.

I do believe that AKEL+DISY will be able to built up a good momentum in the Greek Cypriot side (especially with DIKO kidnapped by Christofias), so if someone can do the same on the Turkish Cypriot side we may have a referendum coming up in 2009, say May.

Still, I do not think a plan that is not agreed between the two leaders will be put to a referendum. The "Nicosia Plan" will most likely be the result of some cherry picking among the Annan Plans 1 to 5, possibly with some smarter solution on property (involving lease).
I believe Talat and Christofias will be able to trust each other on the fac that no revolutionary changes will be made - and so enter negotiations in good will. With some solid, time consuming, a work among the grass roots nothing is impossible.

[cypezokyli]

well....

too many variables..... too many ifs....

for one, it is a positive step that tpap is out of the scene.


now ASSUMING that:

christofias and talat were honest in what they were saying all these years.

EU will not close the door completely to turkey

erdogan does not find himself in another conflict with the military

the cypriot capital has changed its opinion (interesting article in "vima", )

the Greek Cypriots indeed voted having in mind the cyppro (that is : electing a moderate leader) and not the way our clientel political system works.

the momentum in the Turkish Cypriots society is not completely lost

and that the international community is ready to waste time on us again.


THEN

we might find a solution


..........

these are the assumptions to reach a solution.
for it work.... there are as many

[Londoner]

Could be the last chance saloon - surely if these two cannot reach some form of compromise and solution there is little hope - solution or partition thats the stark reality

[Xenos 2Fan]

My prayers are out to all of you cypriots. God willing we will all witness a change for the positive. Good luck and all my best wishes to all Cypriots. A new dawn has risen.

[depurple]

Hope he is another chameleon! Just a lizard who changes colours! BUT he cant be worst than the other no hopers!
cheers
PS Let see if he starts lining his pockets with money!

[Dream_Merchant]

Of course there is hope!

As much hope as the Communist party taking power in Turkey, that is.

[Rant] As long as the regime in Turkey continues its policy of self absolving itself from the role of a transgressor of the UN charter and non-remittance to shoulder the chunk of the blame and penalty for the situation in Cyprus, there can be no viable or just solution. [/Rant]

No matter what coffee drinking politicians small talk over kadeiff (all complementary financed by tax payers money.. of course)

Then again, with Kosovo and all... who cares about the UN charter? Right? So .. there is hope for Cyprus after all!

I am looking forward to the day that I will call myself a proud Turkish citizen of the Turkish Republic. Better pick up the language to stay ahead.

[repulsewarrior]

...i am apprehensive (and fearful) as well, there is always hope.

AKEL has supported using the Annan Plan for the basis of any future negotiations. However, what is really needed, and what Christfias understands is the need for Cypriots, Talat and himself, to work out a solution which is Secular, and which has as its Principals, Freedom of the highest order, for the dwellers of the island, which Turkey can recognise and cannot refuse.

...indeed, the next Referendum will be a brink; rather than a choice.

[depurple]

RW what ever the Turkish Cypriot agree it MUST have the green light from BIG Brother Turkey!
As you know Turkey will NOT listen to reason or common sense!
90% still live in the Ottoman era that is why there is still along and winding road for Turkey to the EU!
cheers

[repulsewarrior]

[opinion4CY]

A political frame favourable to Cyprus as to the essence of the solution has been created the last few years. Christofias will try to work out the July 8th. Turkey will try to eliminate this agreement or make it not work as it should. Why? Because they know that the through this agreement the influence of AngloAmericans might be reduced and there is a chance that many things might be agreed and will not be in Turkey’s interest (although still quite difficult). The essence of the agreement is to put on a procedure that will lead to final top level negotiations like every time. The difference this time is that a lot of things should be agreed. Why Turkey to agree on things through July 8th since Turkey can go on top level negotiations and do whatever they like?! If Christofias manages to work out the agreement we have chance, if not we will see one of the same, maybe served in a different way.