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| What would happen if all foreign troops were removed from Cyprus? |
| There would be a continuence of peace between both communities and newfound progression. |
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33% |
[ 2 ] |
| Southern Cyprus would invade Northern Cyprus. |
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33% |
[ 2 ] |
| Northern Cyprus would descend into anarchy. |
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16% |
[ 1 ] |
| Absolutely nothing. |
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16% |
[ 1 ] |
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| Total Votes : 6 |
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AQMessiah
Senior Villager
Joined: 04 Mar 2006
Posts: 110
Location: New York
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If all foreign troops were removed from Cyprus (Turkish/Greek and to some degree British Troops) what would be the end result?
Comments, suggestions and opinions please. |
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erolz
Site Admin
Joined: 11 Aug 2005
Posts: 4195
Location: Kyrenia / Girne
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If all troops were to be removed from CYprus tomorrow I just do not see how things would work.
Would the Republic of Cyprus recognise the authority of Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus policemen ? Recognise their authority in the north or not recognise their authority at all. If they recognise the authority of the norths police then will they alos recongise the authority of the norths courts ? How could they recongise the authority of the norths courts under current Republic of Cyprus law ?
If they do not recognise the authority of the norths police what will happen on the green line? What happens if someone attempts to cross south to north and not stop at the norths check point? What happens if a south policeman tries to cross to the North ? If he refuses to show his passport to the norths policemen? If the norths policemen detain him for refusing or block his passage.
It is not that I do not want a demilatrised Cyprus (or world for that matter) - I just do not see or understand how such could possibly work outside of some kind of general settlement ?
I have not voted because none of the options match what I think would happen.
I think if there were not troops physicaly dividing Cyprus and preventing the Republic of Cyprus exercising control over the north, then the Republic of Cyprus would have to sooner or later try and impose its authority and control on the north. I can not see how it could not do so ? I think such attmempts without a general settlement would be an extremely risky endeavour that could easily lead to inter communal clashes (or Republic of Cyprus state clashes with the 'rebel' Turkish Cypriot community if you prefer). |
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AQMessiah
Senior Villager
Joined: 04 Mar 2006
Posts: 110
Location: New York
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Well to begin, UN troops have been "patrolling" the green line for quite some time. Why not allow them to do their job while at the same time easing the tensions? You have a neutral party that's willing to take on the responsibility of keeping the peace. There are way too many guns on Cyprus and there is absolutely no reason for it. When was the last time one side threatened the other erolz?
You say that the South will eventually impose their authority over the North's. If you could clarify what you mean. I'm assuming you're not speaking militarily.
A memorandum of understanding between the two sides could provide for a baseline regarding the extent of their authority. And this is exactly what we need. Baby steps to move forward. A "general settlement" is too drastic of a move and considering it's been elusive for the past 30 years what makes you think it'll happen now? Baby steps erolz, baby steps. 
| Quote: |
(or Republic of Cyprus state clashes with the 'rebel' Turkish Cypriot community if you prefer). |
What makes you think this will happen?! The borders are open, T-Cypriots work in the South, G-Cypriots travel up to the North. Do you think it'll all come crashing down once the guns and troops are removed? You spoke of my optimism...but your pessimism is something else. |
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erolz
Site Admin
Joined: 11 Aug 2005
Posts: 4195
Location: Kyrenia / Girne
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| AQMessiah wrote: |
| Well to begin, UN troops have been "patrolling" the green line for quite some time. Why not allow them to do their job while at the same time easing the tensions? You have a neutral party that's willing to take on the responsibility of keeping the peace. |
The UN does not have a mandate, or will or the means to maintain a 'border' within Cyprus. To politically reach an agreement that they will maintain such a border one would have to political accept the validity of the border itself which just will not happen.
http://www.un.org/Depts/dpko/missions/unficyp/mandate.html
| AQMessiah wrote: |
There are way too many guns on Cyprus and there is absolutely no reason for it. |
Do the police in the Republic of Cyprus carry guns? What is the reason they carry guns ?
| AQMessiah wrote: |
When was the last time one side threatened the other erolz? |
1996 with disastrous and tragic consequences. Removing troops outside of a general settlement could only encourage a repeat and escalation of such tragedies.
| AQMessiah wrote: |
You say that the South will eventually impose their authority over the North's. If you could clarify what you mean. I'm assuming you're not speaking militarily. |
I am saying that a Republic of Cyprus that claims to be the sole legitimate government of all of Cyprus would have to TRY and exert its authority over the north or accept that it has no such authority. Curently it maintains that it has the authority (and is international recognised as having it) but it is unable to exert it because of the presence of Turkish troops that physically stop it from doing so. So Republic of Cyprus courts make rulings about property in the north but these rulings can not be enforced by the Republic of Cyprus. If you remove the troops them the Republic of Cyprus will HAVE to try and enforce these rulings or accept that it does not have the authority to make them. The former would lead to confrontation and the later is not going to happen.
| AQMessiah wrote: |
A memorandum of understanding between the two sides could provide for a baseline regarding the extent of their authority. |
The Republic of Cyprus would not sign an agreement that limits its authority in North Cyprus and recognises the authority of a Turkish Cypriot body in this area outside of a comprehensive settlement.
| AQMessiah wrote: |
And this is exactly what we need. Baby steps to move forward. A "general settlement" is too drastic of a move and considering it's been elusive for the past 30 years what makes you think it'll happen now? Baby steps erolz, baby steps. |
I have no problem with the idea of small steps taken outside of a general agreement. What I have a problem with is large ill considered steps that would massively increase the likelihood of conflict and tension without any actual benefit for anyone. Steps outside of a general settlement have occurred (the opening of the crossing points to give one example). I can think of others that I would happily support , that bring benefits without creating real potential dangers of renewed conflict. Removing troops without a settlement however is just not one of these steps in my view. If it did not change the status quo then what would be it's benefit ? Yet it would imo create potential for renewed tension and clashes.
| AQMessiah wrote: |
| Quote: |
(or Republic of Cyprus state clashes with the 'rebel' Turkish Cypriot community if you prefer). |
What makes you think this will happen?! The borders are open, T-Cypriots work in the South, G-Cypriots travel up to the North. Do you think it'll all come crashing down once the guns and troops are removed? You spoke of my optimism...but your pessimism is something else. |
[/quote]
I think there is clearly a real and credible risk that if Turkish Troops withdrew from Cyprus the chances of similar protest to those that occured in 1996 is massively increased. That the removal of troops without a general settlement would be tant amount to inciting such protests and that would be dangerous and irresponsible. |
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100%cypriot
Warnings : 4
Ministerial
Joined: 27 Jun 2006
Posts: 2148
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Making a Mistake is bad enough but making the same mistake twice is incompetent and removing the troops would send the wrong signal to both sides which imo cause more trouble in cyprus
without a recognised solution these possible decisions ie removal of troops should be kept on the top shelf |
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repulsewarrior
Deputy
Joined: 06 Jan 2006
Posts: 1649
Location: Canada
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In essence, the way to reduce the number of Turkish troops on this island, if that is a desired predecate to an end to the illegal occupation, is to dilute their content in the mass of military personnel stationed here.
This 'unsinkable aircraft carrier' will never be without its occupation. However the governance with which this activity can prevail must have a benefit, in its consideration, to the safety and security of the region as a whole, and it must not harm Cypriots, or their State.
Such an agreement, brokered by the UN, may be a breakthrough, toward Mankind's reaction to disaster, or misery, anywhere close by, by having stationed here forces ready to act at its command. |
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AQMessiah
Senior Villager
Joined: 04 Mar 2006
Posts: 110
Location: New York
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Mmmm, pessimism. Can you taste it?
erolz:
| Quote: |
| The UN does not have a mandate, or will or the means to maintain a 'border' within Cyprus. To politically reach an agreement that they will maintain such a border one would have to political accept the validity of the border itself which just will not happen. |
The UN does have the means to maintain the border, why wouldn't they? Too many of their troops in Iraq? If for some reason they aren't able to, allow the EU to assist. Before you say anything about the EU being biased against Northern Cyprus, they're patrolling a border. That's it, period.
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| Do the police in the Republic of Cyprus carry guns? What is the reason they carry guns ? |
I don't know, do they? Regardless I was referring to the military, not the police forces.
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1996 with disastrous and tragic consequences. Removing troops outside of a general settlement could only encourage a repeat and escalation of such tragedies. |
I'm confused why one would bring this event to the discussion, especially while I'm trying to argue that the guns and military are doing more harm than good to Cyprus. Was it not the military with their guns that turned that day into what it was? What if it was an EU force instead of a Turkish force patrolling the border? It would have more than likely been defused without a single shot being fired.
| Quote: |
I am saying that a Republic of Cyprus that claims to be the sole legitimate government of all of Cyprus would have to TRY and exert its authority over the north or accept that it has no such authority. Curently it maintains that it has the authority (and is international recognised as having it) but it is unable to exert it because of the presence of Turkish troops that physically stop it from doing so. So Republic of Cyprus courts make rulings about property in the north but these rulings can not be enforced by the Republic of Cyprus. If you remove the troops them the Republic of Cyprus will HAVE to try and enforce these rulings or accept that it does not have the authority to make them. The former would lead to confrontation and the later is not going to happen.
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Is that what will happen erolz? I understand that T-Cypriots have concerns that need to be addressed before Cyprus can be united. I also understand that if the South were to force themselves upon the North, it would have dire consequences. So why would the South attempt such a thing? Realistically, the G-Cypriots that were displaced want their land back...understandably; but do you think that they're willing to return to a war zone? Your argument for removing troops off our island just doesn't add up. This is the paranoia I was previously referring to.
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The Republic of Cyprus would not sign an agreement that limits its authority in North Cyprus and recognises the authority of a Turkish Cypriot body in this area outside of a comprehensive settlement.
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Didn't we say baby steps? A simple agreement of reducing troops would be a clever way forward...
| Quote: |
| I have no problem with the idea of small steps taken outside of a general agreement. What I have a problem with is large ill considered steps that would massively increase the likelihood of conflict and tension without any actual benefit for anyone. Steps outside of a general settlement have occurred (the opening of the crossing points to give one example). I can think of others that I would happily support , that bring benefits without creating real potential dangers of renewed conflict. Removing troops without a settlement however is just not one of these steps in my view. If it did not change the status quo then what would be it's benefit ? Yet it would imo create potential for renewed tension and clashes. |
To be honest it sounds like you just like holding this quite large bit of leverage above everyones head. There is absolutely no need for 40,000 Turkish troops on the island if you're sincere about uniting our island. Again, begin reducing the number so we can move forward.
100%cypriot:
| Quote: |
Making a Mistake is bad enough but making the same mistake twice is incompetent and removing the troops would send the wrong signal to both sides which imo cause more trouble in cyprus
without a recognised solution these possible decisions ie removal of troops should be kept on the top shelf |
What mistake exactly? You speak as if we have attempted this before. A little more detail to your thoughts would help.
repulsewarrior:
| Quote: |
This 'unsinkable aircraft carrier' will never be without its occupation. However the governance with which this activity can prevail must have a benefit, in its consideration, to the safety and security of the region as a whole, and it must not harm Cypriots, or their State.
Such an agreement, brokered by the UN, may be a breakthrough, toward Mankind's reaction to disaster, or misery, anywhere close by, by having stationed here forces ready to act at its command. |
repulsewarrior, I enjoy reading your commentary. It's a very productive/progressive mentality. I have read your other post concerning your thoughts on a solution but I'll save my comments for that thread.
Peace
Last edited by AQMessiah on Mon Dec 03, 2007 4:20 am; edited 1 time in total |
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repulsewarrior
Deputy
Joined: 06 Jan 2006
Posts: 1649
Location: Canada
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... i would like to add...
what need for a border between north and south, except as a deliniation of territory if the Turkish Army is diluted, as i propose? |
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erolz
Site Admin
Joined: 11 Aug 2005
Posts: 4195
Location: Kyrenia / Girne
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| AQMessiah wrote: |
| The UN does have the means to maintain the border, why wouldn't they? Too many of their troops in Iraq? If for some reason they aren't able to, allow the EU to assist. Before you say anything about the EU being biased against Northern Cyprus, they're patrolling a border. That's it, period. |
For the Republic of Cyprus to accept a UN or EU force to patrol the border it would have to recognise such a border exits and it accepts it. This is just not going to happen.
| AQMessiah wrote: |
| I don't know, do they? Regardless I was referring to the military, not the police forces. |
Yes they do and there is a reason for it as well.
| AQMessiah wrote: |
| I'm confused why one would bring this event to the discussion, especially while I'm trying to argue that the guns and military are doing more harm than good to Cyprus. Was it not the military with their guns that turned that day into what it was? What if it was an EU force instead of a Turkish force patrolling the border? It would have more than likely been defused without a single shot being fired. |
I bring this up because it is germane to the discussion. The fact is there were Greek Cypriot willing to 'rush' the border even with the Turkish military there. Remove them and you will only encourage such action. That seems pretty obvious to me.
There was an UN force there and they were unable to 'defuse' the situation or contain those people trying to rush across the border. A UN or EU force would either have had to contain the protesters before they crossed which would require a massive amount of personnel at considerable cost and the use of force, or let them past as the UN forces at the time had to do. Do you think an EU or UN force should be able to use force and even deadly force to contain such a protest. The idea is madness. The UN or EU forces (which could not control the border in any case without the Republic of Cyprus accepting there is a border) would not be allowed to use all necessary force to contain such a protest and the protesters would know this. It would only encourage such protests and the inevitable conflict that would result from them.
| AQMessiah wrote: |
| Is that what will happen erolz? I understand that T-Cypriots have concerns that need to be addressed before Cyprus can be united. I also understand that if the South were to force themselves upon the North, it would have dire consequences. So why would the South attempt such a thing? Realistically, the G-Cypriots that were displaced want their land back...understandably; but do you think that they're willing to return to a war zone? Your argument for removing troops off our island just doesn't add up. This is the paranoia I was previously referring to. |
Firstly you totally ignore the issue that I raise re the Republic of Cyprus claims to be the sole legitimate government of all of Cyprus. If the Republic of Cyprus government was willing to accept the existence of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and a border between itself and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and the legitimacy of Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus authorities in the north part of Cyprus, then yes Turkish forces could be replaced with UN or EU ones. However we both know it will not do this.
Greek Cypriot protesters DID seek to 'rush' the border, even with Turkish Troops manning it and it led to new violence and conflict between Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot. Remove the troops without a settlement and you only encourage more such actions and the inevitable new clashes this will create between Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot communities - and that is a BAD and inrresponsible thing if you want reunification.
| AQMessiah wrote: |
| Didn't we say baby steps? A simple agreement of reducing troops would be a clever way forward... |
This is a totally different suggestion and one I support. Yes lets reduce numbers of Turkish Troops. No argument from me.
| AQMessiah wrote: |
| To be honest it sounds like you just like holding this quite large bit of leverage above everyones head. There is absolutely no need for 40,000 Turkish troops on the island if you're sincere about uniting our island. Again, begin reducing the number so we can move forward. |
Look if you say the way forward is to remove troops without a general settlement that is quite different from saying we should seek a reduction in troops as part of a process of give and take to build trust and make a settlement more likely. I support the idea of troops reductions. Personally if I were in charge I would support even unilateral reductions without and 'give and take'. However back in the real world I believe something like troop reductions could be achieved but not without give and take and my personal view is that TP is not willing to give in order to get such a result. I believe he is pursuing a strategy that hopes he can use EU leverage to achieve things like the removal of Turkish Troops with no or very little 'give' on the Republic of Cyprus part and whilst he maintains such a strategy the chances of troop reductions remain remote.
Anyway just to be absolutely clear.
I support the idea of reducing the numbers of Turkish Troops in Cyprus. I even would support a unilateral move to do such. I do not support the idea of removing all Turkish Troops from Cyprus without a general settlement, because I believe that such a move carries risks to great to chance. That does not make me a pessimist , an anti reunificationist, a partitionist, a militarist or a hypocrite as far as I am concerned, just someone with a modicum of common sense and realism. |
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Mete
Warnings : 3
Deputy
Joined: 16 Aug 2005
Posts: 1150
Location: Boston
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| Quote: |
That does not make me a pessimist , an anti reunificationist, a partitionist, a militarist or a hypocrite as far as I am concerned, just someone with a modicum of common sense and realism.
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You're absolutely right, Erol. Troops in Cyprus are not the problem. The sooner people realize this, the better. I'm also all for reducing the number of troops but our problems will be still here with or without troops. Let's focus on solving our problems first and once that happens, it'll be obvious when we don't need troops. |
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