VOTE FOR THE PRESIDENT OF CYPRUS

repulsewarrior · Deputy Joined: 06 Jan 2006 Posts: 1973 Location: Canada

Denktash is a master at his craft. Thirty years of delay and sanctions from the UN to his credit. In the end it was he who opened the gates. Quietly, I understand that he negociated for the failure of the Annan with TPap; what can this mean?

As for the deep State and the Army, he (Talat) depends on the occupying force and the subsidising of a state which is totally dysfunctional without the intervention.

A delay in the referendum, Talat was asked, he refused.

repulsewarrior · Deputy Joined: 06 Jan 2006 Posts: 1973 Location: Canada

Mr. f, your point is valid.

But the author talks of perception, which may be the same.

Chapfallen · Senior Villager Joined: 18 Sep 2006 Posts: 464

Chapfallen · Senior Villager Joined: 18 Sep 2006 Posts: 464

repulsewarrior · Deputy Joined: 06 Jan 2006 Posts: 1973 Location: Canada

Why do you say Talat is an internationally respected leader?

erolz · Posted: Wed Nov 28, 2007 1:25 am Post subject:

My simplistic view of things.

In Turkey you have two main forces in contention. You have the deep state and you have the 'reformers'.

The deep state is primarily the military (but also other elements in judiciary and other state organs) and their principal motivating factor is maintain the 'preminance' of the military in political affairs as protectors of the secular state.

The 'reformers' are primarily (and ironically in many ways) the AKP party and their principal motivating factor is reforming of Turkey in order to reduce the power of the deep state and the preeminence of the military in political life. There is some concern that this 'reforming' may just be a means to another end (remove power of deep state and then islamify politics in Turkey) but to date their actions have primarily been those of reforming not islamification and those reforms remain even if their end objective is something other than this.

In essence the reformers have gained considerable ground at the expense of the deep state, but the rate and degree of what the reformers can do is still circumscribed by the deep state. They can only effect changes so fast and so far without risking direct confrontation with the deep state.

In North Cyprus there are mirror forces to those in Turkey. Denktash and his political heirs were / are the north cypriot forces aligned closest with the turkish deep state and Talat and his party and political allies are the forces most closely aligned with the reforming forces in Turkey.

Just as the reformers gained ascendancy within Turkey with the AK Party gaining a ruling non coalition election victory at the expense of the deep state and political forces allied with it (and subsequently the presidency also), so Talat also gained ascendancy over Denktash and his political heirs in the North.

Or to put it as simply as possible Denkatsh was tied to deep state / military in Turkey and Talat to the AK Party / reformers.

Just as the AK Party is limited in pursuing it's agendas by the limits of how fast and how far it can push the deep state / military, so Talat is limited in what he can achieve by the same limits. Talat is ALSO limited in what he can do by the behavior and approach of the Greek Cypriot leadership. There is imo still some hope that a non TP lead Greek Cypriot leadership will not limit him as much as the current TP led one does.

pg · Deputy Joined: 17 Jan 2006 Posts: 1485 Location: Cyprus

Back to the subject,

Since there is quite a clear trend, I'll predict the future polls and real election rounds...

DEC
TP 30.0%
IK 28.0%
DC 29.6%

JAN
TP 29.5%
IK 28.8%
DC 29.6%

FEB - poll
TP 29.4%
IK 29.0%
DC 30.6%

FEB - 1st round
TP 29.9%
IK 32.0%
DC 32.6%

FEB - 2nd round
IK 44.0%
DC 52.6%

Chapfallen · Senior Villager Joined: 18 Sep 2006 Posts: 464

pg · Deputy Joined: 17 Jan 2006 Posts: 1485 Location: Cyprus

moonskin · Mukhtar/is Joined: 29 Aug 2005 Posts: 529

pg · Deputy Joined: 17 Jan 2006 Posts: 1485 Location: Cyprus

I may be suprising now, but TP is really from a party that normally commands about 12%, while DISY and AKEL are relatively stable above 30%.

TP's present numbers are a result of his position in power (in a country where the media adores the power instead of critically examines it).

The numbers I have predicted is first based on extrapolation of the present trends; TP going down and the other two going up. In additon, in the last 2-3 elections DISY has in the end ended up 2-3% above what the last polls had shown.

repulsewarrior · Deputy Joined: 06 Jan 2006 Posts: 1973 Location: Canada

Bananiot · Deputy Joined: 13 Aug 2005 Posts: 1243 Location: Nicosia

I agree basicaly with pg but in the case of Christofias vs Kasoulides in the second round, it could go either way. One more thing, probably left and right do not matter now. Did you hear the reaction of DISI and AKEL at the suggestion of ditching cola? Who was left and who was right? I could not decide.