How many Turkish Cypriots in the Republic of Cyprus (govt areas)?

aweverard · Posted: Mon Oct 13, 2008 5:19 am Post subject:

Hi Guys,

The problems with an armed conflict regarding Cyprus are many fold.

A traditional all out attack buy Republic of Cyprus to return the north will lead to defeat at the hands of Turkey. Turkey is too important as a major western ally, oil and gas route from central Asia, NATO member etc for the Republic of Cyprus to receive western political support. This will allow Turkey to then defeat the Republic of Cyprus with ease - I know that in the Republic of Cyprus people are taught that Greece will help and that Greek or Greek Cypriot troops are worth 10 times the Turkish but this is completely untrue - did Greece go to war with Turkey in '74? What were the casualty rates in ‘74? The answers are No and a democratic EU member with major investment in Turkey is less likely to now. Given that there were some 2500 Greek/Greek Cypriot causalities in ’74 did they inflict 25,000 causalities on the Turkish forces or more than 4 times what the allies received on D-Day, in fact the 1.3 Greek/Greek Cypriot troops to 1 Turkish/Turkish Cypriot.

So a traditional military option is out, how about an “a symmetrical” armed struggle? This also has a number of problems associated with it. Firstly tactical, who do we attack? If the attack is against Turkish Cypriots then the argument that Turkey came in '74 to save Turkish Cypriots gains considerable weight. As armed liberation requires a majority of people in the areas being liberated to support the campaign any attacks against Turkish Cypriots will be self defeating. Given that the PKK has failed to achieve its aims and they are native Turkish speakers, have a large possibly sympathetic population to hide in and are based in north Iraq a wild lawless place with a very porous border next to Turkey, how would any attack by a new-EOKA target only Turkish interests in Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus or on the mainland? This then brings us to the political aspects of a symmetrical conflict; given the current political climate with the war on terror any organisation using terrorist tactics against a major western ally and democratic Muslim country will find it is outlawed very quickly. The Republic of Cyprus government will then have to crack down on this new-EOKA and be seen to do so, if they fail to crack down hard enough then the argument that Turkey intervened to protect Turkish Cypriots form Greek Cypriots again gains weight.

Given that violence by Greek Cypriots against Turkish Cypriots is likely to be highly damaging to the aim of a united Cyprus, possibly to the point of de facto recognition, the only course of action is negotiation. Which brings us back to making sure that Turkey is comfortable with the results: Politically - EU membership support; Military - securing the exit route for the Ceyhan pipeline and their south coast; Cultural - not being seen to have abandoned their brother Turkish Cypriots i.e. the Turkish Cypriots need to vote for a solution in any referenda.

stavrizatz · Posted: Mon Oct 13, 2008 6:05 am Post subject:

I do not dissagree with you, that there are little or no chances to have a military victory against Turkey for reasons that you've mentioned. And that is the reason why Greek Cypriots in the last 34 years are essentially negotiating by themselves as everytime it is the Greek Cypriot side that is compromising.

aweverard · Posted: Mon Oct 13, 2008 12:59 pm Post subject:

repulsewarrior · Deputy Joined: 06 Jan 2006 Posts: 1765 Location: Canada

it is not so simple.

let us hope that there will be no need for armed conflict because the trouble will lead to mainland Turkey. targets in Greece may be an objective therefore for the Grey Wolves. the exercises of these irregulars will not have the support of the State most likely. As such their acts will not be an effort that is coordinated with the diplomatic efforts, etc. that will be applied simultaneously by the governmental powers. as a result the violence will have the tone of anarchy; a war of attrition with no end. it will expand, and the EU will have little choice but the defence of its sovereignty against the conflict. efforts against Turkey in this fashion, not a member of the EU, and through its own intransigence will be justified somehow. this will lead to an even larger military effort when allies appear on the 'battlefield'.

however, Turkey struggles with its own reform, it is aware of its own stagnation, and in terms of economics it is highly likely that the process will move albeit slowly toward the original aims of Ataturk, an 'eastern' country that is a 'western' country.

aweverard · Posted: Sat Oct 18, 2008 1:26 pm Post subject:

stavrizatz · Posted: Sat Oct 18, 2008 6:35 pm Post subject:

aweverard · Posted: Sun Oct 19, 2008 1:20 am Post subject:

Are you saying that it was wrong for the Turkish Cypriots to resist enosis in '63-'74, hence the violence against them but OK for Turkey to intervene to prevent enosis in '74?

It is OK for Turkey to intervene to restore the Republic but not OK for Turkish Cypriots to resist enosis which is against the constitution of the Republic?

repulsewarrior · Deputy Joined: 06 Jan 2006 Posts: 1765 Location: Canada

repulsewarrior · Deputy Joined: 06 Jan 2006 Posts: 1765 Location: Canada

stavrizatz · Posted: Sun Oct 19, 2008 6:07 am Post subject:

repulsewarrior · Deputy Joined: 06 Jan 2006 Posts: 1765 Location: Canada

bravo stav, enjoyed your post thouroughly.

what is most telling, yet ignored is the Public's reaction in '74, which did not rally to support the coupists.

I imagine that many were not comfortable with Turkey's help alone as a Guarantor, I know I was happy that someone rallied to end this madness. This failing by Britain, and consequentially the exposure of Kissinger's designs, whether intentional or through ignorance, certainly allowed for the result, an illegal occupation by Turkey's Army, again the suffering of a whole population, excluding them on an ethnic discrimination, and the island torn in two.

For those of us who believe that Cyprus should not 'belong' to Greece or Turkey, like in those days where we stayed quiet, we truly are a silent majority, ignored in that the extremist (and the supporters of interlocutors) manage there time to effectively organise for there cause better. however, i speak of the island dwellers, but in the wider sense, as "Greeks" and "Turks" they remain a tiny minority that are dismissed, as their concerns are not understood (and their Rights denied).

stavrizatz · Posted: Mon Oct 20, 2008 4:12 am Post subject:

repulsewarrior · Deputy Joined: 06 Jan 2006 Posts: 1765 Location: Canada

Stav, remember your first posts on this forum, I remember, and I stand up for your right to your own expression today, as then. You are no fanatic, (and if you are, you are not that kind; certainly not prepared to sacrafice me or anyone else for your desire) Thank goodness we are living in a State that has the strength to uphold a diversity of opinions. Vive le Chypre libre!

stavrizatz · Posted: Tue Oct 21, 2008 9:10 am Post subject:

Yes you did RW and thanks very much for that, I not saying. Just when you wrote

repulsewarrior · Deputy Joined: 06 Jan 2006 Posts: 1765 Location: Canada

you are not an extremists stav, and you are very honest with yourself. your position is understandable. i applaud your courage in voicing your view which to many, now a days, is extreme.

indeed, dialog involves tolerance. you should not be afraid of others and their own inabilities to challenge their fears. keep talking; our fight surely is with the ignorance which for too long has left most silent following a path which led us to disaster, and in fear if those who spoke the loudest.

your reasoning is quite correct (historically), Cyprus should have joined Greece because it is the will of the vast majority of the population, yet Cyprus can belong to no one, we live in an Age now even beyond the Modern, and as such it should be Cypriot, rather than "Greek" or "Turk".